Internet Trend Report 2011: Mobile Start User Interface Evolution

On October 20, it was reported that on October 18, at the Web 2.0 Summit, Mary Meeker, a well-known analyst at KPCB, issued a report on Internet trends in 2011.

The main contents of the report are as follows:

Theme 1: Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook are super leaders, but Chinese and Russian enterprises continue to rise.

Among the top 25 enterprises in the world (by market value), Apple ranked first with 373 billion dollars, and its revenue in 2010 was 76.283 billion dollars. Google ranked second with a market value of $177 billion and revenue of $29.321 billion in 2010. Amazon ranked third with a market value of $108 billion and revenue of $34.204 billion in 2010.

Facebook's ranking rose. In the recent SharesPost transaction, its market value reached about 77 billion dollars, and its revenue was unknown.

Baidu ranked fifth, with a market value of $46 billion and revenue of $1216 million in 2010.

EBay ranked sixth, with a market value of $42 billion and revenue of $9.156 billion in 2010.

Tencent ranked 7th with a market value of US $41 billion and revenue of US $2.967 billion in 2010.

Priceline.com, Yahoo, and Yahoo Japan ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th, with market capitalization of US $24 billion, US $20 billion, and US $20 billion, respectively. Their revenues in 2010 were US $3.085 billion, US $6.325 billion, and US $2.995 billion, respectively.

Among the top 25 Chinese enterprises, NetEase ranked 20, with a market value of US $6 billion and revenue of US $836 million in 2010. Alibaba ranks 21, with a market value of US $5 billion and a revenue of US $854 million in 2010. Ctrip ranked 23, with a market value of US $5 billion and a revenue of US $424 million in 2010. Sina ranked 24th with a revenue of 403 million dollars in 2010.

The top 25 Russian enterprises include Yandex and Mail.ru, ranking 15th and 19th.

NHN, a South Korean enterprise, ranked 13th with a market value of US $10 billion and revenue of US $1062 million in 2010.

The top 25 Japanese enterprises include Yahoo Japan and Rakuten Japan.

Topic 2: In August 2011, 81% of the world's top Internet enterprises were outside the United States, according to the monthly independent visitors.

Google, Microsoft and Facebook occupy the top three places.

Yahoo, Wikipedia, Amazon, Apple, Tencent, VEVO and Baidu entered the top 10.

Theme 3: In three years, China has added more netizens than the United States, and China, India, Nigeria and Iran are the largest growth countries.

From 2007 to 2010, China added 246 million netizens. In 2010, the number of netizens was 459 million, a compound annual growth rate of 20%, and netizens accounted for 34% of the total population.

From 2007 to 2010, India added 42 million netizens. In 2010, there were 88 million netizens, with a year-on-year compound growth rate of 43%. Internet users accounted for 8% of the total population.

From 2007 to 2010, the number of Internet users in the United States increased by 22 million. In 2010, the total number of Internet users was 244 million, accounting for 79% of the total population

Theme 4: In October 2011, the number of social network users exceeded that in December 2006, of which 70% (800 million) used Facebook.

Every month, Iranians spend 11.1 hours on social networking, ranking first in the world. Then there are 10.8 hours in Argentina, 10.3 hours in Turkey, 10.2 hours in Chile, and 9.7 hours in Russia

Every month, Americans spend 6.8 hours on social networking.

Rapid popularization of mobile Internet technology

Second point: Move

Theme 1: Breakthrough communication technologies and services can break out even in a recession.

From 1920 to 2011, there were several major technologies: FM radio was born in 1920-1925, the technology penetration rate (calculated by the total population) reached 80% around 1940, and nearly 100% around 1965.

Television was born from 1945 to 1950, and its penetration rate reached 80% by 1960. The Internet was born after 1990, and its penetration rate reached 80% by 2010. Mobile Internet started around 2004, and its penetration rate was close to 60% in 2010.

Theme 2: In the second quarter of 2011, global 3G mobile users increased to 936 million, accounting for 17% of all mobile users, with a year-on-year growth of 35%.

In terms of mobile users, there are 179 million in the United States, with a penetration rate of 56%, 117 million in Japan, with a penetration rate of 97%, and 43 million in South Korea, with a penetration rate of 82%.

China has 40 million 3G users, with a penetration rate of 4%. However, the year-on-year growth rate of China's 3G users reached 172%. India has 23 million 3G users, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1050% and a penetration rate of only 3%.

Smart phone Super function phone

Theme 3: In the second quarter of 2010, smart phones shipped in Europe exceeded functional phones; In the first quarter of 2011, smart phone shipments in the United States exceeded feature phones.

In North America, smart phones accounted for less than 20% of the total mobile phone shipments in the first quarter of 2008, about 40% in the third quarter of 2010, and more than 50% in the first quarter of 2011. At present, the proportion has increased to more than 60%.

In Europe, smart phones accounted for about 20% of the total mobile phone shipments in the first quarter of 2008, about 40% in the second quarter of 2010, and now more than 75%. Theme 4: Despite the rapid growth, the proportion of smart phones is still low. In 2011, there were 835 million smart phone users worldwide, but the total number of mobile phone users reached 5.6 billion. Theme 5: The iPod has changed the media industry, the iPhone has changed faster, and the growth of the iPad is even more amazing. Theme 6: Android phones can be accepted faster than iPhones. ( Beijing website production )

Theme 7: Smartphones and tablets face off.

In terms of smart phones, by the second quarter of 2010, a total of 129 million iPhones and 152 million Android phones had been shipped. The average price of an iPhone (ASP) is $606, while that of an Android phone is less than $600. The iPhone was launched in the second quarter of 2007, and the Android phone was launched in the fourth quarter of 2008. In terms of tablets, by the second quarter of 2010, 2900 iPads and 16 million Amazon Kindles had been shipped. The average iPad sells for $650, while the Kindle sells for less than $200. The former was launched in the second quarter of 2010, and the latter was launched in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Topic 8: Mobile usage is huge and growing rapidly.

Mobile traffic proportion growth

From 2008 to 2011, the proportion of Pandora's traffic from mobile devices changed from 5% in 2008 to 60% in 2011.

From 2008 to 2011, the proportion of Twitter traffic from mobile devices changed from 25% in 2009 to 55% in 2011.

From 2008 to 2011, the proportion of Facebook traffic from mobile devices changed from 0% in 2008 to 33% in 2011.

Topic 9: Mobile search is growing rapidly. In the past few years (2007-2011), Google mobile search has quadrupled.

Theme 10: Mobile advertising, all types are growing rapidly.

Theme 11: In 2011, the global mobile application and advertising revenue totaled $12 billion, with a compound annual growth of 17% for three consecutive years.

Third point: user interface

User interface evolution

Before Jobs, computers were utilitarian tools for computing. With Jobs, computers have become the product of beauty, which can be used to do many things, with the purpose of making life better. Jobs' design concept is unique.

Theme 1: Evolution of natural user interface: now is the era of touch, sound and action.

Next big event: voice

In the 1980s, the text dominated, the pattern in the 1990s, and the touch, sound, and action in the 2000s.

Next important product? There are 4 billion Bluetooth enabled devices in the world, including earphones that can eliminate noise and provide better sound quality, high-quality wireless microphones, networked car audio, voice recognition technology, voice creation and sharing services: everything revolves around online sound.

Perhaps this era is related to "listening". Alexander Lijung, founder and CEO of SoundCloud, said: "Sound will be better than video... Recording will be the new QWERTY." The implication is that sound will become the best keyboard in the future.

Point 4: E-commerce

Theme 1: E-commerce has accelerated its growth for four consecutive quarters.

Topic 2: E-commerce continues to gain share from offline business.

By the second quarter of 2011, e-commerce accounted for 8% of the total retail marketing in the United States. It was 4 per cent in the first quarter of 2004.

Topic 3: The start of mobile e-commerce.

Start of mobile e-commerce

Square's gross mobile sales or transactions in 2010 were zero, and this year they exceeded $1 billion. EBay was $1 billion in 2009 and nearly $4 billion this year. PayPal was about $200 million in 2009, and nearly $3 billion this year. Target was about 500 million dollars in 2009 and nearly 2 billion dollars this year. Amazon was about $500 million in 2009 and nearly $1.5 billion this year.

Theme 4: The reason why people give up shopping in stores and embrace mobile is that 52% (Americans) want to find a better price, and 51% want to find another store with a better price.

Point 5: Good advertising

Rapid growth of advertising

In 2011, the average advertising revenue per user was $49, up from zero in 1994. In 1995, the global advertising revenue was 55000 dollars, and in 2011 it reached 73 billion dollars. The average advertising revenue per user was $9 in 1995 and $49 in 2011. There were 60 million users worldwide in 1995 and 1.5 billion in 2011.

In the third quarter of 2011, Google's gross advertising revenue was $9.335 billion, up 33% year on year. The number of paid clicks was 16.876 billion, up 28% year on year. The cost per click was 0.55 US dollars, up 4% year on year. From the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of Google's paid clicks was 15%, 16%, 18%, 17% and 18% respectively. From the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of Google's cost per click was 7%, 6%, 7%, 10% and 12% respectively.

In June 2011, Americans spent more time on social networking than on portals. In the third quarter of 2011, the distribution of various online display ads in the United States was 30% for social networks, 21% for portals, 14% for entertainment, 11% for news and information, 10% for mailboxes, 5% for sports, 3% for online games, 2% for directories, and 2% for commerce and finance. In terms of CPM per thousand presentations, the social network is $3.8, the portal is $2.45, entertainment is $4.25, and business and finance are $9.9.

Sixth point: production of content

Theme 1: The production of content shows the trend of cheap commercialization

As the main body of content production, the revenue of American newspaper companies has declined for five consecutive years, with the quarterly revenue falling from about $14 billion in 2006 to about $6 billion in 2011. In the same period, Google's revenue continued to rise.

Topic 2: The value of the industry is shifting from content producers to information aggregators

Economic theory points out that for the goods without difference, the price gradually tends to marginal cost in the competition, while the marginal cost of digital content is 0. In the current environment, content producers should produce differentiated content in an economically competitive way.

Point 7: America's technological advantages

Topic 1: Technological innovation comes from mobile computing

The market share of iOS, Android and Windows Mobile mobile operating systems developed by American companies in 2011 has reached 64%, and only 5% in 2005. Nokia Symbian and Linux were the top two in the market in 2005.

The innovation speed of Silicon Valley is unprecedented; American companies, including Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook, have unprecedented leadership, concentration and density; The combination of technical development and design optimization is unprecedented.

Point 8: The general trend of the 21st century

Theme 1: The spread of information presents a global trend, which is characterized by real-time, fast and extensive

When the earthquake hit Japan on March 11 this year, the information activities related to Japanese users were reflected on Twitter for the first time.

85% of the world's population has been covered by commercial wireless signals, which even exceeds 80% of the power grid coverage. In India, more than 200 million farmers receive government payments and subsidies through mobile devices every year.

In 2010, transnational trade accounted for 24% of the total global trade, far higher than 10% in 1960. The development of the Internet has promoted economic globalization.

Point 9: Internet identity

Topic 1: It takes more time to determine whether the current information security situation is better than before

Facebook has 400 million active users every day, more than 350 million active mobile users and more than 800 million registered users. Each Facebook user has an average of 130 friends and participates in an average of 80 community activities or groups. Facebook users upload more than 250 million photos every day. The number of global smartphone users has reached 835 million, and will grow to 1.4 billion by 2013.

When so many users use the Internet, they often only need to click once and release a photo, and the "truth" will be spread.

The current environment is full of uncertainty, so it is not certain that the current information security situation is better than before. This is a new field, and it will take more time to know the answer.

Point 10: Macroeconomic issues

Theme 1: The stock market fluctuates violently

From 2010 to 2011, the stock index fluctuation index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange averaged 40%, while from 1990 to 2011, the index averaged 20%.

Theme 2: Consumer confidence is lower than historical evaluation level

The average consumer confidence index of the American Consultative Chamber of Commerce in the past 30 years was 92.7, while it was 45.4 in October 2011, approaching the historical low of 25.3 in February 2009. Consumer confidence is far below the historical average.

Topic 3: American enterprises are cutting capital expenditure

According to the data provided by the survey organization ChangeWave Research, American enterprises are reducing capital expenditure. 23% of respondents said that their companies would cut capital expenditure in the third quarter of 2011.

Theme 4: IMF lowers GDP growth expectations of many countries

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the GDP growth expectations of several countries in 2011 and 2012, including the United States, the euro zone countries, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, India, Brazil and Russia.

Theme 5: Performance of large mountain slope market and stock market

The performance of the bulk commodity market and stock market is an important indicator leading the macro-economy. However, at present, crude oil price is 24% lower than the 52 week high, China's Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is 23% lower than the 52 week high, MSCI Europe Index is 23% lower than the 52 week high, Russia RTS Index is 33% lower than the 52 week high, Standard&Poor's 500 Index is 12% lower than the 52 week high, and Nasdaq Index is 9% lower than the 52 week high.

Point 11: The situation in the United States

Theme 1: Attention should be paid to the debt problem

In the past 15 years, the revenue of the US government has increased by an average of 3% annually, while the expenditure has increased by an average of 6% annually. In terms of the proportion of debt to GDP, the current US government debt ranks 10th in the world, while the total US government debt has reached 13.707 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world.

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